Most MSME defaults aren't caused by the borrower's own books quietly rotting — they're contagion events from a stressed buyer or supplier. Drishti watches the network, not just the entity, to flag stress 12 months out.
Every loan, every type, one common score and risk band — re-computed monthly, trend tracked over time.
SCENARIO
Sundar Textiles — own financials look stable, but watch its buyer
Buyer-Supplier Network
Built from GST e-invoice and e-way bill data — risk propagates along real trade relationships.
Stable
Early stress
High stress
Contagion Log
What Drishti sees, in order, before it ever shows up in Sundar Textiles' own bank statement.
Sundar Textiles — Working Capital Loan, ₹42,00,000
Four expert models, weighted for this borrower's segment, combined into one common score.
STRUCTURED / FINANCIAL
Bureau + ratios + repayment history
78 / 100 — Stable
UNSTRUCTURED / NLP
RM visit notes, litigation, news
61 / 100 — Watch
SUPPLY CHAIN GRAPH
Buyer/supplier contagion signal
34 / 100 — High Risk
BEHAVIORAL / TIME-SERIES
EPFO trend, utility payment trend
58 / 100 — Watch
UNIFIED EARLY WARNING SCORE
58
AMBER — ELEVATED RISK, 12-MONTH WINDOW
Top 3 Stress Drivers
Same standardized format regardless of which expert model is driving the score.
01
Buyer concentration risk rising — Metro Retail Chain, 46% of revenue, now averaging 41-day payment delay vs. 15-day contracted terms
02
EPFO contribution reduced 22% over the last 3 months relative to 12-month average
03
RM visit note (last month) flagged "reduced floor activity, 2 of 4 production lines idle on visit day"
Recommended Action
A probability becomes a workflow trigger, not just a number on a dashboard.
AMBER protocol: Proactive relationship-manager outreach within 2 weeks. Review working-capital limit utilization trend. Open a restructuring conversation before the account misses a payment — not after.